Energy, Sustainability & Environment

Green steel production is set to transform the European steel industry between 2025 and 2030, with hydrogen-based Direct Induced Iron (H-DRI) and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) blast furnaces emerging as key technologies in the decarbonization effort. H-DRI, driven by renewable hydrogen, offers a cleaner alternative to traditional blast furnaces, which are reliant on coal and coke. While H-DRI adoption is expected to increase dramatically by 2030, the CCUS blast furnace process will continue to play a significant role in the transition. The adoption of CCUS technology, which captures CO2 emissions from traditional blast furnaces, will enable the continued operation of existing plants with reduced carbon footprints. However, H-DRI offers the potential for a more sustainable, long-term solution, particularly in regions with abundant renewable energy. By 2030, H-DRI adoption is expected to reach approximately 8 million tonnes per year in Europe, with Germany, Sweden, and Finland leading the charge. However, the cost of H-DRI is currently higher than that of CCUS blast furnaces. By 2030, H-DRI costs are projected to decrease to €300 per tonne of steel, making it more competitive with CCUS blast furnaces, which are expected to reach €250 per tonne in the same timeframe.

Between 2025 and 2030, Europe’s power systems absorb unprecedented volumes of DER PV, batteries, EVSE, heat pumps, and flexible loads pushing cybersecurity from a compliance checkbox to a reliability imperative. Germany and the Benelux lead standardized approaches that blend NIS2 governance with IEC 62443 and ENTSO‑E cyber‑security controls, while the Nordics operationalize threat intelligence sharing across TSOs/DSOs. The winning posture is layered: zero‑trust device gateways and certificate‑based onboarding; segmented DERMS/SCADA with least‑privilege; secure firmware/PKI for lifecycle trust; and SOC capabilities fused with grid‑aware anomaly detection. Quantitatively, illustrative trajectories suggest DER capacity operating under certified cyber controls rises from ~75 GW in 2025 to ~240 GW in Europe by 2030, with Germany growing from ~14 to ~44 GW. Risk models show residual risk can be cut ~28–40% via zero‑trust gateways and ~22–35% via secure firmware/PKI as TCO improves 20–40% with scale and automation. SOC + anomaly detection (OT + physics‑informed analytics) lifts detection rates and shortens time‑to‑contain, while segmented DERMS/SCADA reduces lateral movement risk.

Between 2025 and 2030, the deployment of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technology will play a pivotal role in decarbonizing key industrial sectors in North America, including cement, steel, chemicals, and power generation. The USA, particularly regions like Texas and Appalachia, will lead the buildout, thanks to favorable policies, government incentives, and abundant storage capacity in geological formations. With regulatory support and the adoption of carbon pricing mechanisms, the cost of CCUS is expected to decline steadily, making it a more viable option for large-scale deployment. CCUS costs are primarily driven by capital expenditure (CAPEX) for capture technologies, operational costs (O&M), energy penalties from carbon capture, and the price of CO2 storage. These components impact the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and overall economic feasibility. By 2030, cost reductions in CAPEX and technological advances in capture systems, coupled with higher carbon prices, will allow CCUS to achieve meaningful commercial scale, especially in power generation and energy-intensive industries.

Between 2025 and 2030, the UK and Europe will scale EV battery recycling from pilot lines to industrial networks that close the loop on lithium, nickel, and cobalt while meeting producer-responsibility rules. Capacity additions track rising end-of-life packs, manufacturing scrap from gigafactories, and import flows. Regulatory drivers EU Battery Regulation and UK stewardship schemes push higher collection targets, recycled-content mandates, and traceable MRV, anchoring bankable offtake for recovered materials. Unit economics hinge on feedstock mix (NMC/NCA vs LFP), metal prices, recovery yields, and process design. Hydromet routes dominate for highest lithium recovery and product purity; pyromet offers robustness for mixed feeds and safety but historically sacrificed lithium unless paired with hydromet polishing. Emerging direct-recycling and sulfate-to-precursor pathways promise energy savings and cathode-grade outputs. Illustrative values show lithium’s relative contribution rising toward 2030 with LFP volumes and lithium demand, while nickel/cobalt contributions normalize. Operators that deliver high lithium recovery (>85–90%) with low reagent intensity and energy optimization will widen margins.

From 2025 to 2030, floating offshore wind (FOW) transitions from pilot arrays to early utility scale in Europe, with Denmark positioned as a technology proving ground for serial fabrication, modular moorings, and grid integration. As bottom‑fixed sites in shallow waters saturate, FOW unlocks higher‑resource, deeper zones, enabling country‑level decarbonization targets and green electrification of power‑to‑X clusters. Three platform classes dominate: semi‑submersibles (logistics‑friendly, broad metocean envelope), spars (excellent stability where draft and wet tow are feasible), and tension‑leg platforms (TLPs) for low pitch/roll in constrained footprints. Turbine ratings rise toward 18–20 MW, driving fewer units per GW and lowering BOS costs. Illustratively, cumulative floating capacity in Europe could grow from ~1.2 GW in 2025 to ~10.5 GW by 2030, with Denmark rising from ~60 MW to ~760 MW as serial assembly lines, large‑component ports, and standardized mooring/anchor kits mature. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) trends down as learning effects compound: semi‑subs decline from ~€115/MWh to ~€78/MWh, spars from ~€122/MWh to ~€86/MWh, and TLPs from ~€135/MWh to ~€95/MWh in this outlook. Key levers include hull standardization, robotic welding and NDT, wet tow logistics, rapid‑connect dynamic cables, and shared offshore substations. Floating HVDC and grid‑forming converters improve system strength and export reliability.