Energy, Sustainability & Environment

From 2025 to 2030, North America’s SAF industry transitions from demonstration batches to programmatic scale‑up anchored in low‑CI feedstock aggregation, refinery co‑processing retrofits, and dedicated units for HEFA, Alcohol‑to‑Jet (ATJ), and Fischer‑Tropsch (FT). Airlines secure multi‑year offtakes indexed to verified carbon intensity (CI), while producers compete on feedstock security, conversion yields, and hub logistics. The USA leads on policy stacking and retrofit candidates; Canada expands with lipid and forestry residues; Mexico progresses where airport demand, waste streams, and policy alignment intersect. Illustratively, cumulative SAF capacity in North America could grow from ~3.2 to ~18.0 bn L/yr by 2030, with the USA rising from ~2.5 to ~14.8 bn L/yr. HEFA remains the near‑term workhorse, benefiting from existing hydroprocessing trains and lower execution risk; ATJ scales on ethanol corridors and emerging e‑alcohol routes; FT adds deep decarbonization potential using MSW and woody residues, albeit with higher capex and integration complexity. Levelized costs trend down—HEFA toward ~$3.1/gal, ATJ ~$3.8/gal, FT ~$4.3/gal by 2030 in this outlook—as plants enlarge, heat integration improves, and CI‑linked credits sharpen incentives. Lifecycle GHG reductions span ~70–85% depending on pathway, feedstock, and utilities.

From 2025 to 2030, industrial parks across Europe adopt microgrids to secure power quality, hedge price volatility, and meet decarbonization commitments. Germany leads with brownfield retrofits that integrate PV, wind, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and combined heat and power (CHP) under advanced controllers capable of seamless islanding. The business case rests on three levers: (1) time‑of‑use and imbalance avoidance via optimization and demand response; (2) resilience premiums from islanding during grid outages; and (3) Scope 2 reductions and corporate power purchase agreement (PPA) alignment. Islanding spans four design tiers ride‑through (seconds‑minutes), short‑duration (4–8h), day‑scale (24h) for critical loads, and multi‑day with on‑site generation. Quantitatively, illustrative cumulative capacity for Europe grows from ~0.7 GW in 2025 to ~2.6 GW by 2030, with Germany rising from ~120 MW to ~620 MW as industrial clusters and port zones standardize architectures. Levelized energy cost (LEC) improves across modes: grid‑connected hybrid operations trend from ~€105/MWh in 2025 to ~€85/MWh by 2030 through controls and procurement; short‑duration islanding falls from ~€135 to ~€115/MWh as BESS prices decline and efficiencies improve; 24‑hour critical islanding declines from ~€175 to ~€150/MWh via hybridizing with CHP and demand flexibility.

Hydrogen fuel cell technology is emerging as a critical solution for decarbonizing heavy transport in North America, including freight and buses, as the sector faces increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions. The adoption of hydrogen fuel cells for heavy transport vehicles is expected to increase significantly between 2025 and 2030, with substantial growth in both the USA and Canada. Fuel cell vehicles will offer a cleaner alternative to diesel-powered trucks and buses, contributing to North America’s decarbonization goals. By 2030, hydrogen fuel cell adoption in heavy transport is projected to reach 7 million vehicles, with the majority of the adoption occurring in regions like California, Texas, and Canada’s Ontario province, which have favorable regulatory frameworks and incentives for hydrogen adoption. However, the cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles remains a significant barrier to mass adoption, with the price for a hydrogen-powered vehicle in 2025 estimated to be around $150,000, compared to the $90,000 cost of a diesel vehicle.

Between 2025 and 2030, lithium mining projects in the UK and Europe face two decisive tests for bankability: water risk and social license. Operators must slash water withdrawal intensity while proving credible, independently verified community engagement. Water performance can improve materially using closed‑loop water recycling, membrane trains (RO/NF), brine reinjection for salar‑type resources, and tailings thickening plus wetland polishing. As these measures scale and power procurement improves, the cost of treated or saved water declines illustratively from €1.5–1.8/m³ in 2025 to €0.5–1.2/m³ in 2030 depending on the intervention. Our outlook models a steady fall in withdrawal intensity for UK hard‑rock and EU projects as closed‑loop and reinjection practices become standard. Community acceptance will be shaped by early, transparent engagement co‑designed mitigation plans, participatory monitoring, impact‑benefit agreements (IBAs), and grievance mechanisms aligned with IFC Performance Standards and the EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD).

From 2025 to 2030, high‑temperature industrial heat pumps (HT‑IHPs) scale across Europe, with Denmark setting the pace through power‑to‑heat economics, district energy integration, and mature EPC/O&M capabilities. HT‑IHPs delivering 120–200 °C and niche cascades reaching ~250 °C replace gas and fuel‑oil boilers in pasteurization, drying, washing, distillation, and low‑pressure steam preheating. The business case hinges on electricity‑to‑gas spreads (incl. carbon), integration quality (pinch analysis, return temperatures, cascade options), and refrigerant/compressor choices that keep COP ≥2.0 at high lifts. Denmark leads due to high RES shares and flexible market design; Sweden, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany follow, prioritizing sites with waste‑heat (20–60 °C) and high operating hours. Illustrative levelized heat costs (LHC) fall from ~€38/MWhth at 120–160 °C in 2025 to ~€30/MWhth by 2030; at 200–250 °C, optimization trims LHC from ~€58 to ~€46, challenging gas boilers once carbon exceeds €80–100/tCO₂ and PPAs or time‑of‑use optimization are in place. While electrical interconnection remains a gating item, modular skids and digital controls shorten lead times.

Geothermal energy is emerging as a key solution for decarbonizing the power sector in North America, with the USA poised to lead the charge in scaling geothermal plants through 2030. As a highly reliable and baseload power source, geothermal is expanding its footprint, particularly in western USA, where vast untapped resources exist. Key optimization strategies, including enhanced drilling techniques, reservoir management innovations, and the implementation of CO2-assisted drilling, will help lower costs, improve drilling efficiency, and increase the energy output from geothermal wells. Technological advancements in drilling cost reduction will play a major role in making geothermal more economically viable. Horizontal drilling, advanced drilling bits, and reservoir stimulation technologies are expected to reduce drilling costs by 20-30% by 2030. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and CO2-assisted drilling technologies, while still emerging, hold the potential to revolutionize geothermal power production by unlocking deeper, hotter reservoirs.

From 2025 to 2030, corporate demand in Germany and across Europe will bifurcate between high‑integrity nature‑based solutions (NBS) and engineered removals, with distinct price, risk, and procurement profiles. Nature‑based credits REDD+ with conservative baselines, improved forest management (IFM), blue carbon remain the volume workhorses, supported by robust MRV, leakage controls, and permanence buffers. Engineered removals such as DACCS and BECCS command the highest prices due to verifiable additionality and durability, but supply remains limited and delivery risk requires structured offtake. Pricing spreads widen as integrity frameworks consolidate. Credits aligned with ICVCM Core Carbon Principles and used under VCMI Claims earn durable premiums; buyers increasingly separate emissions reductions (internal/value‑chain) from beyond‑value‑chain contributions per SBTi guidance.

The production of advanced biofuels has become a critical component of North America's renewable energy strategy. As the demand for sustainable energy sources grows, biofuels derived from non-food feedstocks are gaining prominence. This report explores the cost benchmarking of advanced biofuel production, focusing on the impact of feedstock logistics and conversion efficiency. By 2025, the advanced biofuel production market in the USA and North America is projected to reach $20.5 billion, growing at a CAGR of 12% from 2025 to 2030. This report delves into key areas such as feedstock availability, transportation costs, conversion efficiency, and emerging technologies that drive cost reductions. The report highlights trends in biofuel feedstock logistics, including the challenges and solutions for optimizing supply chains, and discusses advancements in conversion technologies that are expected to improve efficiency and lower production costs in the coming years.

Between 2025 and 2030, Europe’s green‑hydrogen costs decline as electrolyzer capex falls, stacks last longer, and renewable PPAs expand. Belgium sits at the heart of this shift, leveraging access to North Sea wind, industrial off‑takers in chemicals and refining, and cross‑border infrastructure to import/export green molecules and derivatives. Production economics remain dominated by electricity price and capacity factor; policy support contracts for difference (CfDs), investment grants, grid‑fee relief, and guarantees of origin shapes bankability and brings levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) inside industrial switching thresholds. Illustrative trajectories suggest Europe’s average LCOH could move from ~€5.5/kg in 2025 toward ~€3.5/kg in 2030 under favorable PPAs (≤€35–45/MWh), 70–80% utilization via hybrid RES portfolios or grid‑firming, and a 30–40% decline in electrolyzer capex. Belgium tracks slightly above the EU average in early years due to system integration and grid charges, converging by 2030 as offshore wind volumes and support mechanisms mature. The cost stack shifts from capex‑heavy to power‑driven, keeping power procurement strategy central to project value.

Between 2025 and 2030, solar energy in North America is expected to grow exponentially, accompanied by a corresponding rise in energy storage capacity, which is crucial for addressing the intermittency of solar power. With solar storage playing a pivotal role in energy grid optimization, advancements in battery technologies and the integration of solar with storage systems will be at the forefront of the energy transition in the USA and Canada. Key players in the energy sector, from utilities to independent power producers, will leverage innovations in battery technologies like lithium-ion, sodium-ion, flow batteries, and zinc-air batteries to develop storage systems capable of supporting large-scale solar deployments. While lithium-ion batteries continue to dominate the market due to their high efficiency and energy density, other technologies, such as sodium-ion and flow batteries, are expected to capture increasing market share by 2030. These technologies will offer a competitive edge in specific applications where lithium-ion may not be as efficient or cost-effective. The deployment of solar-storage systems will face challenges in terms of cost reduction, scalability, grid integration, and long-term sustainability, especially for emerging technologies that have yet to be scaled up.