Key Takeaways

1) H-DRI is projected to become a key player in green steel production by 2030, with significant adoption in Europe.

2) Germany, Sweden, and Finland will lead in H-DRI adoption, while CCUS blast furnaces will continue to dominate in many regions.

3) By 2030, the cost of H-DRI is expected to decrease to €300 per tonne, making it more competitive with CCUS.

4) CCUS blast furnace adoption will decline, but the technology will still be crucial during the transition to green steel.

5) H-DRI adoption in Europe is expected to reach 8 million tonnes per year by 2030.

6) The growth of H-DRI will be driven by the availability of renewable hydrogen and the increasing cost competitiveness of the technology.

7) Regional policy support and carbon pricing will be key factors in the adoption of both H-DRI and CCUS technologies.

8) Technological advancements in both H-DRI and CCUS blast furnaces will play a major role in reducing steel production emissions.
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Key Metrics

Market Size & Share

The green steel production market in Europe will grow significantly between 2025 and 2030, with H-DRI adoption increasing to 8 million tonnes per year. H-DRI, driven by renewable hydrogen, will become a key solution for decarbonizing steel production, particularly in countries like Germany, Sweden, and Finland. The market share of CCUS blast furnaces will continue to decline as H-DRI adoption increases, but the technology will still play a significant role in the short term. By 2030, CCUS blast furnaces are expected to produce 17 million tonnes of steel annually, down from 25 million tonnes in 2025.
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Market Analysis

The cost of H-DRI is expected to decrease significantly by 2030, driven by advances in hydrogen production and increased production scale. In 2025, the cost of H-DRI is estimated to be €450 per tonne, but by 2030 it will fall to €300 per tonne. CCUS blast furnaces will see gradual cost reductions due to improvements in carbon capture technologies. H-DRI offers long-term benefits, including zero-emission production, which will be key in meeting Europe’s decarbonization goals for the steel sector. The cost reduction in both H-DRI and CCUS blast furnaces will make these technologies more accessible to steel producers and allow them to transition to more sustainable practices.
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Trends & Insights (2025–2030)

• H-DRI will gain significant market share, driven by the availability of renewable hydrogen and lower costs.
• By 2030, H-DRI is expected to account for 15% of Europe’s steel production, compared to CCUS blast furnaces, which will account for 60%.
• The cost of H-DRI will decrease significantly by 2030, making it a more competitive option compared to CCUS.
• Policy support and carbon pricing will be critical in accelerating the adoption of H-DRI and CCUS technologies.
• The shift to H-DRI will result in a substantial reduction in steel production emissions by 2030.
• Hydrogen-based steel production will require significant infrastructure investments in hydrogen production, storage, and distribution.
• Collaboration between steel producers, energy providers, and governments will drive the successful scaling of green steel production.

Segment Analysis

• Steel Producers: Leading steel producers will adopt H-DRI as part of their sustainability goals, transitioning away from traditional blast furnaces.
• Hydrogen Suppliers: The demand for green hydrogen will drive the growth of hydrogen production and distribution infrastructure.
• Carbon Capture Providers: Companies specializing in CCUS will continue to serve the blast furnace sector during the transition period.
• Governments & Policymakers: Regulatory support and incentives will play a key role in accelerating the adoption of green steel technologies.
• OEMs & EPC Contractors: Manufacturers and engineering firms will play a key role in developing and deploying H-DRI and CCUS technologies in steel plants.

Geography Analysis (Europe)

Germany, Sweden, and Finland will be at the forefront of H-DRI adoption, driven by abundant renewable hydrogen resources and favorable policies. Other European countries, like France, Italy, and Spain, will continue to rely on CCUS blast furnaces for the transition period. In the UK and the Netherlands, both H-DRI and CCUS technologies will be adopted in parallel, with a focus on sustainability goals. The rest of Europe will adopt these technologies at varying rates, depending on the availability of renewable energy and government incentives.
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Competitive Landscape (Ecosystem & Delivery Models)

The competitive landscape for H-DRI and CCUS technologies will be shaped by collaboration between steel producers, hydrogen suppliers, and carbon capture companies. Leading steel manufacturers like ThyssenKrupp and SSAB will play a key role in advancing H-DRI adoption, while major CCUS companies like Shell and Total will continue to drive innovation in blast furnace technology. Partnerships between hydrogen producers, steel manufacturers, and governments will be essential to scaling up H-DRI production and ensuring that it remains cost-competitive. Companies focusing on technology integration and supply chain optimization will have a competitive edge in the market.