Consumer & Retail

From 2025 to 2030, US eCommerce fraud shifts from card‑centric detection to identity‑first prevention that blends behavioral biometrics, device intelligence, liveness checks, and instant identity graph resolution. Attackers industrialize deepfakes, emulators, and synthetic identities; defenders counter by scoring behavior (keystroke cadence, pointer micro‑motions), verifying government‑ID liveness without friction, and triangulating consented signals from carriers, banks, and trusted identity providers. The objective function moves beyond pure chargeback avoidance toward maximizing instant approvals while keeping false positives and manual reviews low.

Retailers and consumer brands in the USA and EU are reframing merchandising around Generative AI (GenAI). Three capability stacks are scaling fastest: (1) personalized storytelling (AI-authored product narratives and shoppable content), (2) dynamic content/creative (DCO for ads, dynamic product ads, on‑site modules, email, and CTV), and (3) micro‑influencer campaigns orchestrated with AI for creator matching, briefing, and asset remixing. Anchored by robust AI‑in‑retail growth forecasts and broad enterprise AI adoption, we model AI‑in‑merchandising sub‑segment spend in USA+EU rising from ~US$7.0B in 2025 to ~US$20.5B by 2030. Adoption is propelled by first‑party data mandates, creative production cost deflation, and measurable uplifts in engagement and conversion tempered by governance needs under the EU AI Act and brand‑safety controls. Operationally, GenAI compresses content cycles from weeks to days, enabling seasonal, local, and persona‑level variants at scale while keeping visual and voice consistency within brand guardrails. Personalized stories improve product discovery and AOV in categories with complex attributes (beauty, electronics, home). Dynamic content engines re‑rank products and render creatives on‑the‑fly across ad, email, and owned surfaces.

EU retail packaging is entering a mandate‑driven redesign cycle. Between 2025 and 2030, brands migrate to simpler, recyclable formats with higher recycled content while piloting reuse/refill systems where density and habit exist. We model total EU spend on sustainable retail packaging design changes, material premiums, and compliance growing from ~US$17.2B (2025) to ~US$32.3B (2030). Contrary to popular belief, unit costs do not necessarily rise: as designs standardize on mono‑material families and right‑sizing reduces dimensional weight, average unit pack cost edges down from ~US$0.124 to ~US$0.119 by 2030. Mandates set the floor; shopper preference sets the ceiling. Policy pressure accelerates recyclability and labeling compliance, while consumers increasingly reward proof‑based claims clear icons, QR verification, and third‑party audits lifting willingness‑to‑pay (WTP) premiums from ~3.8% to ~6.1% on eligible categories. Our model suggests EU median brands can raise the share of recyclable packs from ~61% to ~82% and recycled content from ~24% to ~46% by 2030, while pushing labeling compliance from ~72% to ~93%. Reuse/refill scales in urban corridors and closed‑loop channels (beauty, home care, beverages), supported by deposits and durable packaging.

Retail Media Networks (RMNs) have become core to retailer profitability and advertiser reach, transforming retail from a low-margin trade business into a high-margin media ecosystem. Between 2025 and 2030, combined U.S. and EU RMN ad revenues are projected to grow from ~US$38B to ~US$83B, reflecting a CAGR of 16%. U.S. markets lead in first-party data and automation maturity, while EU markets advance on privacy-by-design and premium omnichannel experiences. The ROI stack now defines competitiveness. U.S. networks deliver incremental ROAS of ~3.8x with retailer ROI near 32% and advertiser ROI ~29%; EU peers average 3.2x, 28%, and 25%, respectively. The widening gap stems from faster self-serve adoption and unified identity layers in the U.S., contrasted with EU fragmentation and regulatory friction. Yet EU’s premium ad yield and cross-media synchronization offer higher brand trust and long-term sustainability.

Europe’s direct-to-consumer (D2C) market is entering a scale-and-efficiency phase where profitable growth beats pure top-line expansion. From 2025 to 2030, we model D2C GMV rising from ~€78B to ~€142B (≈12.9% CAGR) as brands consolidate first-party data, accelerate owned-channel conversion, and re-architect fulfillment to reduce per-order costs. Margin expansion comes from three levers: (1) mix shift toward higher-contribution SKUs and subscription bundles; (2) CAC deflation through creative testing, MMM, and retail media diversification; and (3) ops productivity via zonal warehousing, delivery density, and returns prevention. CAC pressure normalizes as brands move beyond a duopoly mindset. By 2030, blended CAC declines ~15% vs. 2025, driven by incrementality testing, creator/affiliate programs, and CRM-led reactivation.

Private label (PL) momentum in the U.S. is shifting from short‑term trade‑down to durable preference. As inflation cools yet price sensitivity persists, retailers are professionalizing PL portfolios premium tiers for quality seekers, value tiers for budget shoppers, and wellness/clean‑label micro‑ranges for credibility. Between 2025 and 2030, we model U.S. PL retail sales expanding from ~US$235B to ~US$315B with value share rising from ~19.8% to ~23.5%. Growth is not purely price‑led: improved sensory, packaging, and guarantees lift repeat and protect margin, while supply consolidation and demand planning reduce out‑of‑stocks. Economics hinge on three levers. First, the price gap to national brands narrows from ~23% to ~18% as PL quality improves, and promo depth is disciplined; gross margin still expands (from ~27.5% to ~29.8%) via owned‑brand sourcing, pack/size architecture, and lower slotting/MDAs. Second, penetration grows from ~74% to ~81% of households, with 12‑month repeat rising from ~57% to ~63% as trust and availability improve. Third, mix matters: grocery remains the anchor, while household and personal care accelerate on efficacy and sustainability claims; OTC grows through retailer‑clinic ecosystems and telehealth.

U.S. retailers are treating omnichannel as an operating system not a project. From 2025 to 2030, leaders knit together web, app, store, marketplace, and last‑mile into a measurable conversion and cost engine. We model U.S. omnichannel enablement spend rising from ~US$38B (2025) to ~US$73B (2030) across WMS/OMS, clienteling, POS modernization, BOPIS/curbside, in‑store sensors, and returns optimization. Value creation shows up in higher site→store/BOPIS conversion, stronger in‑store assisted CVR, lower fulfillment cost per order, falling return rates, and a larger share of returns converted to exchanges. Execution shifts from “channels” to flows: discovery → reservation → pickup/ship → service/returns. Store tech priorities include computer‑vision shelf checks, RFID accuracy, guided picking, curbside orchestration, and associate apps. Clienteling and guided selling lift in‑store assisted conversion; post‑purchase telemetry (fit/usage) informs returns prevention.

Subscription fatigue is the central retention challenge of the next cycle. From media and software to mobility and wellness, European consumers face an overhang of paid services, rising price sensitivity, and attention scarcity. The solution set is shifting from blunt discounting toward behavioral economics (BE)‑informed design and value‑tier engineering: pause/snooze options that prevent hard churn, value ladders that match willingness‑to‑pay with clear outcomes, and usage‑based credits that protect perceived fairness. We model Europe’s spend on “subscription fatigue solutions” a composite of retention science, experimentation platforms, offer management, and tier redesign rising from ~€3.4B in 2025 to ~€7.2B by 2030. Luxembourg, while a small share by volume, is notable on a per‑capita basis because of its high financial‑services and software penetration and cross‑border consumer flows. Operationally, leaders reframe retention as a product design problem. BE levers loss aversion framing, goal‑gradient progress bars, endowed trials, and choice architecture are embedded into journeys: upgrade prompts arrive when value is salient; pauses default to re‑activation; and exits present “keep core, shed extras” micro‑tiers.

Smart Packaging 2.0 fuses low‑cost sensors, secure identities, and cloud analytics to protect product integrity and unlock margin in North America. From 2025 to 2030, retailers and brands move beyond passive dates and batch codes to dynamic freshness scoring and unit‑level authentication. We model regional spend on IoT‑enabled freshness and anti‑counterfeit solutions rising from ~US$4.3B (2025) to ~US$10.7B (2030). Value creation shows up as lower spoilage, faster recalls, fewer counterfeit incidents, higher on‑shelf availability (OSA), and better demand sensing in cold chains. Technology stack: (1) sensing time‑temperature indicators (TTIs), gas sensors, moisture and shock; (2) identity & security serialized QR/NFC with cryptographic signatures and hardware roots of trust; (3) connectivity BLE/NFC scans, gateway readers, and event streaming; (4) analytics freshness algorithms, anomaly detection, and geofencing; and (5) applications recall workflows, consumer provenance apps, and theft/counterfeit deterrence. Operational design integrates with WMS/TMS/ERP and retailer apps to avoid scan fatigue and to automate disposition rules (discount, discard, re‑route).

Between 2025 and 2030, the U.S. market for ESG-driven supply chain analytics transitions from compliance-led pilots to scaled platforms that blend carbon accounting, Scope 3 visibility, and supplier risk scoring. We model revenue expanding from ~$4.2B in 2025 to ~$9.9B in 2030 (~18% CAGR), with carbon accounting SaaS and supplier-risk analytics capturing the largest share. Adoption accelerates as listed companies publish audited emissions, customers demand product-level footprints, and lenders embed climate risk into underwriting. Vendors compete on three vectors: data completeness (supplier coverage and primary data), defensibility of methods (emissions factors, allocation rules, audit trails), and workflow fit (integrations, dashboards, remediation programs). Network data exchanges where buyers and suppliers co-manage datasets and audit artifacts emerge as a growth hotspot, while consulting spend remains ~18% in 2030 for ERP/PLM integration and supplier onboarding. Scope 3 visibility is the battleground: by 2030, roughly half of large U.S. enterprises maintain production-grade Scope 3 analytics.