Analyzes advanced-node semiconductor sourcing, highlighting TSMC concentration, AI-driven CoWoS bottlenecks, export-control constraints, and limited near-term diversification beyond Taiwan.
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This transcript examines advanced-node semiconductor supply, where TSMC remains the dominant supplier for 3nm and 2nm chips, with AI demand intensifying allocation pressure. The key bottleneck is advanced packaging, especially CoWoS, rather than wafer capacity alone, with NVIDIA securing much of available supply. Mobile customers retain protected capacity, while new fabs in Japan and Arizona offer relief only by 2028. Export controls limit China’s progress beyond 7nm, and sourcing resilience increasingly depends on deep foundry partnerships, packaging expansion, and Taiwan utility reliability.
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